The Democrats’ lead on the generic ballot has regressed to the mean of around 9-10 percent, and a new Pennsylvania map has created even more Democratic opportunities. With all of this, here are my 2018 House predictions, state by state. I’ll also have a brief conclusion with final results at the end.
Alabama shockingly elected Doug Jones last December, but there’s little to look at in their House seats. Each district was decided by at least 30%, except for AL-02, a Republican seat. I’m giving Democrats 1 safe seat, Republicans 5 safe seats, and one likely seat for the Republicans as well.
R: 6, D: 1
Alaska only has one House seat, Don Young’s seat. He won by over 14%, and he’s not retiring. I’d rate this safe Republican.
Arizona is a bit interesting. Martha McSally, a Republican, isn’t running again due to her Senate bid. Clinton won in her district by 5%. Tom O’Halleran, a Democrat, won his seat comfortably in 2016, but Trump won in the district by 1%. I’d rate both of these seats as lean Democrat. I’d give Democrats 3 other safe seats, and Republicans 4 safe seats.
R: 4, D: 5
Nothing much here, although Trump only won in AR-02 by 11%. I’d make that seat likely Republican, and everything else is safe for the incumbent.
Democrats have a big opportunity in California, the state with the most House seats. Clinton won in 7 Republican districts. I’m making those all lean Democrat. Everything else is safe for the incumbent, with the exception of CA-07, which was won by only 3%. That seat is lean Democrat.
R: 7, D: 46
There’s only one competitive seat in Colorado: CO-06. Coffman, a Republican, won the seat by 8%. However, Clinton won it by 9%. With a strong Democrat lead on the generic ballot, as well as a Clinton win, I’d rate this seat as lean Democrat.
Clinton only narrowly won CT-02 and CT-05 in 2016, but the Representatives won by vast margins. I’d rate these two seats likely Democrat, with the rest of the seats being safe Democrat.
Rochester is sure to win in deep blue Delaware.
Florida is another great opportunity for Democrats. Clinton won Republican-held FL-26 and FL-27 by big margins. With the additional Democratic lead on the generic ballot, both of these seats are lean Democrat. Meanwhile, FL-07 and FL-12 went for the incumbent by only 3-4%. These seats are lean Democrat. Every other seat is safe for the incumbent, with the exception of FL-25, which only leans Republican because Trump won in the district by only 2%.
R: 14, D: 13
Georgia is home to the famous GA-06 special election, which narrowly went to Karen Handel after the most expensive House race in history. However, Handel won only after the Congressional shooting, which caused a noticeable change in polls. This time around, given the Democrat lead on the generic ballot, I think GA-06 leans Democrat. GA-07 is only likely Republican because Trump won by less than 7%. Every other seat should be safe for the incumbent.
R: 9, D: 5
No real contest here, both seats are safe Democrat.
Basically the opposite of Hawaii. Both seats are safe Republican.
Peter Roskam, R, won IL-06 by 18%, despite Clinton winning there by 7%. Given the election wave, I think this seat leans Democrat. IL-13 and IL-14 only lean Republican due to Trump’s narrow win.
R: 6, D: 12
While Indiana is a swing state in the Senate elections, its House seats are pretty solid.
R: 7, D: 2
Iowa, a classic swing state. IA-02 went for the Democrat by 8%, but Trump won there by 4%. I think this seat leans Democrat. IA-03 was close in 2016, and it should be closer this November. I’d rate it lean Republican. IA-01 was even closer than IA-03, and the incumbent won by less than the Democrats’ current generic ballot lead. I think that seat is lean Democrat. The remaining seat is safe Republican.
R: 2, D: 2
Kansas is also home to a 2017 special election. However, I don’t think Ron Estes is going to be voted out. However, KS-03 could flip. Clinton narrowly won in the district, and the incumbent won by only 11%, within striking distance for Democrats. I think this seat leans Republican narrowly. I may change this depending on the generic ballot.
KY-06 could be close. That’s pretty much it.
R: 5, D: 1
Another boring one.
R: 5, D: 1
Trump won Maine’s 2nd congressional district in 2016, and the incumbent won by about 10%. However, without Trump on the ballot, I think Poliquin will be voted out, making this seat lean Democrat.
Maryland is disgustingly gerrymandered. Everybody’s safe.
R: 1, D: 7
It’s all Democrats, and it’s staying that way.
Michigan helped Trump ultimately win the 2016 electoral college. However, I think Democrats will win the open seat in MI-11, which went for Trump by only 4%. Again, Trump won’t be on the ballot, so I think Democrats have a real shot. This seat is lean blue. Everything else is safe for the incumbent’s party.
R: 8, D: 6
Minnesota was extremely close in 2016. Many Democrat seats were won by Trump. Those seats are lean Democrat, with the exception of MN-08. MN-08 will be open, and the current Representative won by less than 0.7%, while Trump won by 16%. I think this seat is lean Republican, marking the first, and possibly only, Republican flip. However, I think Democrats will win back a seat with MN-02, which went for both Trump and the incumbent by less than 2%. Given a Democrat wave year, this seat is lean blue, resulting in 0 net change.
R: 3, D: 5
R: 3, D: 1
The Senate control could come down to this state, but the House sure won’t. Safe for all incumbents.
R: 6, D: 2
Greg Gianforte barely won this special election. If he had assaulted reporter Ben Jacobs even just a week earlier, he probably would’ve lost. Democrats will most likely campaign using the audio and Gianforte’s mugshot, making this seat, narrowly, lean Democrat. This is backed up by the 2018 Senate race. Voters will be coming out to support Jon Tester, and will most likely support the Democrat House candidate while they’re at it.
NE-02 could get tricky. Bacon won by only 1.2%, and Trump won by only 2.2%. Democrats hold a 9% lead in the generic ballot. I think this seat leans blue.
R: 2, D: 1
Two Democrat seats are competitive here. First, NV-04 is likely Democrat. Clinton won by 4.9%, and even though the incumbent isn’t running, this should still go blue. Second, NV-03 is going to be very close. Trump won there by 1%, and Rosen, who is not running for another term, won by less than 2%. I think this seat barely leans Democrat.
R: 1, D: 3
So, Republicans are probably going to flip another seat. NH-01 was extremely close to begin with, but now the incumbent isn’t running. And, unlike in Nevada, there’s no Senate race here, so voters will come out only for the House race and the Gubernatorial race, which is likely to go red. I think this seat leans Republican.
R: 1, D: 1
Democrats can make some large gains in the state of New Jersey. Republican LoBiondo isn’t running, making the seat lean blue. Also, Republican Frelinghuysen isn’t running, making that seat lean blue as well. NJ-07 went for Clinton in 2016, but went for the Republican Representative by 11%. With a good Democrat year, this seat is leaning Democrat. Finally, NJ-05 barely went for Trump, despite going for the Democrat Representative by 4.4%. This seat is lean Democrat.
R: 2, D: 10
Despite Steve Pearce not running again, everything here is pretty safe.
R: 1, D: 2
New York is another good state for Democrats. Six current Republican seats only lean Republican, while 2 Democrat seats only lean Democrat. Everyone else is safe, but Democrats could easily win any of the 6 lean Republican seats.
R: 9, D: 18
North Carolina is badly gerrymandered. Unless the state told to redraw lines (which did happen, but was then halted), all seats are safe.
R: 10, D: 3
Easy Republican seat. House seat, that is.
OH-01, OH-12, and OH-10 could all be close, but currently are likely Republican. Everything else is safe for the incumbent’s party.
R: 12, D: 4
Those are some pretty red seats.
Clinton won OR-04 by only 0.1%, but it went for the incumbent by 16%. That seat is likely Democrat, while everything else is safe for the incumbent.
R: 1, D: 4
Oh boy. The new Pennsylvania court-drawn map has been released, and it’s not good for Republicans. Assuming it isn’t overturned, Democrats could win 3-6 new seats. It’s a bit difficult to categorize individual seats, as lines have been shifted and many districts have been renumbered, so I’ll just give my prediction of the state in general. I think Democrats will win 4 new seats, and one new seat will be likely Republican. This will ultimately give Democrats the House majority.
R: 8, D: 10
Pretty simple. Safe Democrat.
I’d be lying if I said South Carolina wasn’t gerrymandered. Everyone is safe.
R: 6, D: 1
This one’s easy.
Once again, a state where everybody is safe.
R: 7, D: 2
Democrats are going to make gains in Texas, a state that is slowly becoming a tossup. TX-23 went for Clinton by 3.4%, but only went for the Republican Representative by 1.3%. Because of the generic ballot, this seat is lean Democrat. TX-07 and TX-32 are both lean Republican after Clinton surprisingly won both districts.
R: 24, D: 12
UT-04 could get close, especially if Democrats get up to a 10% lead on the generic ballot. I’d rate this as narrowly leaning Republican.
Welch won his seat with an 80% margin. Enough said.
After what we saw in the 2017 elections, there is no doubt that Virginia is getting more Democratic. Clinton won VA-10 by a whopping 10%, and Barbara Comstock only won by 5.8%. Even in a neutral year and especially in a Democratic wave year, I think this seat is lean Democrat. VA-07 and VA-02 are both close seats and are therefore only leaning Republican. Everyone else is safe.
R: 6, D: 5
Washington would be fairly straightforward, had Dave Reichert not announced his retirement. I think his seat could flip, considering Clinton won in the district and it’s a Democratic wave year. This seat is lean Democrat.
R: 3, D: 7
West Virginia is probably going to have a Democratic Senator, at least in name. However, Democrats have virtually no chance at any of their 3 House seats.
Despite Trump winning WI-03, Ron Kind ran uncontested. I think he, and the whole state, is safe.
R: 5, D: 3
An easy one.
After all is said and done, I projected Democrats would win the majority with 222 seats to Republicans’ 213 seats. I think special elections and the generic ballot prove that 2018 will be a Democratic wave, and the tightening in polls have regressed to the mean. To be fair, the House is only lean Democrat in my prediction, so Republicans could still hold the chamber. Either way, Democrats are poised to make gains. Be sure to check out my Senate predictions and my Gubernatorial predictions, as well as my explanation of the generic ballot. Here’s the full map, please disregard Pennsylvania as a new Congressional map has been drawn. Seats in Pennsylvania are non-specific in this map and only count towards the greater Pennsylvania count.