Earlier, I said that the midterms had gotten a lot closer. That’s true, the generic ballot and Trump’s approval rating have tightened up. It just doesn’t feel right to keep my old Senate predictions, which gave the Democrats a majority. So, here are my new predictions:
- I’ll start off by using the formula explained in my first post with updated polling. That gives us this map:
- Next, I’ll make some changes on the Democratic side. First off, it doesn’t make sense that Florida is likely Democratic. Trump won Florida, and rumors say Gov. Rick Scott, a popular candidate, might be running. That changes Florida to lean Democratic. Next, Missouri and Indiana are probably closer to a tossup than lean Democratic. Claire McCaskill faces a tough re-election in red Missouri, and Joe Donnelly has reasons to be concerned in Indiana. I’m moving both states to tossup. Finally, Connecticut and Virginia are a longshot for Republicans. Virginia proved in the 2017 election to be solidly blue, and Connecticut is an easy Democratic state. I’m moving both states to safe Democratic. We’re left with this:
- Finally, I’ll adjust the Republican side. For starters, Nebraska and Mississippi aren’t only leaning Republican. Both went for Trump easily. However, things in Mississippi are a bit hectic, and a Democrat has a slight chance of winning. I’ll make both states likely Republican. Next, Utah. Utah is safe Republican. There is virtually no chance of a Democrat winning, especially if Mitt Romney runs. I’m fixing Utah to be safe R. Also, all tossups will be purely tossups. The election is so close that it makes no sense to state which direction a state leans. That would be misleading, as the numbers are so close.
Our final map, after making polling and fundamental adjustments, gives 48 seats to the Republicans and 46 to the Democrats with 6 tossups.