Polls
Multiple polls, including a new CNN Poll, show Democrats up by double digits in a generic ballot race. Generic ballot polls show party advantage overall in elections, especially House elections.
Democrats’ lead in polls gives them an advantage in the 2018 midterms. Some analysts go as far to say Democrats are favored to take back the House. At worse, the House is a pure toss-up. However, gerrymandering could keep the Democrats from making any large gains. Republicans drew House districts after the 2010 census in a way that gave them an advantage in keeping their seats. This means Democrats will have to have more than just a small lead to take back the House.
While the new CNN Poll may just be an outlier, the overall polling composite shows Democrats with a fairly large lead over Republicans. According to Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight, Democrats, on average, lead by 12 points. This puts them in a position to take the House.
It is still early, but Democrats have only done better over time. At the beginning of the year, Democrats only held a 5 point lead over Republicans. It is worth noting that no polls have been taken since the passage of the Republican Tax Bill.
My Prediction
I think that Democrats have an advantage in the midterms. I’d give them a 60% of taking back the House. This is due to two main things:
- Democrats’ lead is greater than what is required, even with gerrymandering. An analysis by Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball showed that Democrats would need about a 5 point lead to get a majority. They currently have a 12 point lead.
- The President’s party typically loses seats in midterms. Over the past 21 midterm elections, the party of the sitting President has lost an average of 30 House seats. Democrats need only 24 seats.
