Disclaimer: This is my personal prediction and is not a guaranteed result of the Alabama Senate election. There was no math involved in this prediction, it is purely my thoughts.
Chance of Winning: Moore 55%, Jones 45%
Roy Moore: 49%
Doug Jones: 47%
This is Alabama. The state voted for Trump by 28 points. If you had asked me 2 weeks ago who I thought would win, I would’ve said Doug Jones. However, with Trump’s recent endorsement of Moore, and with the resumed funding by the NRSC, I think the Republican candidate will eek out a win. Is this what I hope happens? No. I hope Jones will beat Moore. But I just can’t see that happening.
Jones could win. Jones could easily win. I gave Jones a 45% chance of winning. Many news outlets gave Trump only a 2% chance of winning, and FiveThirtyEight gave him around a 40-30% chance of winning. And he won. I think that if Jones turns out the black vote, and if moderate Republicans are disappointed and stay home (or write-in), Jones could win 48%-47%, with write-ins getting 5%.
My prediction is within 10 percent, and my final vote is within 2 points. Therefore, I can confidently say that this race is a toss-up. If I had to choose 1 winner, I’d choose Moore.